Gut instincts & immediate intuition. Rating the success of good ideas. #APCC Think Tank.

On most projects we spend hours, days and even weeks – and sometimes months – assessing options and solutions using complex multi-criteria assessment and appraisal tools.

If you follow my blog you may remember that at the BMW Guggenheim Lab in Berlin we asked the question “should city planners trust their gut feelings?” http://www.cyclingrachelsmith.com/media-articles/should-city-planners-trust-their-gut-feelings/. At the Lab we concluded that:

  • We slow down innovation by mistrusting our gut feelings
  • We need to let out intuition guide us rather than using defensive decision-making processes.
  • We don’t always need complex solutions for complex problems
  • We all need to do in to be ‘less afraid’ and use our ‘gut feelings’.
  • The best decision under risk is not the best decision under uncertainty
  • Less is more – good decisions often require ignoring part of the information

For this reason, and in very small groups, we evaluated ‘Our better ideas’:

  • Incorporating cycling with family, friends, going to the beach and BBQ’s
  • Women
  • Less lycra
  • Making money from cycling
  • Free bikes
  • Free flights
  • Roads dominated by pedestrians and cyclists

in less than 5 minutes and using a Probability of Success and Impact template we concluded by using our gut feelings and immediate intuition that the ideas with the greatest impact of success and the highest probability of success were:

  • Incorporating cycling with family, friends, going to the beach and BBQ’s
  • Women
  • Free bikes
  • Making money